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Anti-Quackery Ring

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This ring is for sites that combat & debunk health-related frauds, myths, fads, and fallacies, and are more interested in real, objective, scientific proof, than in the speculative, subjective, and unproven theories and anecdotes of so-Called "Alternative" Medicine (sCAM)....................................... WARNING: Ring members have no control over advertisements appearing on this page, and neither endorse nor recommend their subject matter.
 

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More on HPT, and conditionals and their converse - 12/01/2012
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After writing the primer on conditional probabilities and their converse vis-a-vis screening tests, I continued to scour the Web to gather more information on the base rates of conception/pregnancy. But, much to my chagrin, as with searching for scientific studies on the reliability of home pregnancy tests (HPT) I have come up nearly empty-handed. Thus far I've managed to find only one resource (which unfortunately doesn't provide any citation or rationale for the 50% figure provided; it sounds quite plausible, notwithstanding). The probability of being pregnant increases as various indicators come into play. For instance given coitus within the last mentrual cycle and given the current scheduled menses has been overdue for several days, the probability that one is pregnant increases to around 50%. For our hypothetical HPT in the hands of the "average" user (for whom sensitivity = specificity = 75%) given P(pregnant) = 0.50, th...

More on HPT, and conditionals and their converse



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